How to know what didn’t happen

One of the key types of projects I work on is the economic impact study, which looks at how government expenditure, regulatory changes, public policy or commercial decisions have changed or will change the welfare of the country.  In order to carry out such an exercise, you must build a model which estimates economic activity (in terms of money spent and employment) under two scenarios – with and without the policy or commercial decision. Continue reading “How to know what didn’t happen”