Tag Archives: expected value

How to know what didn’t happen

One of the key types of projects I work on is the economic impact study, which looks at how government expenditure, regulatory changes, public policy or commercial decisions have changed or will change the welfare of the country. ┬áIn order to carry out such an exercise, you must build a model which estimates economic activity (in terms of money spent and employment) under two scenarios – with and without the policy or commercial decision. Continue reading

The economics of faults

Toyota is set to recall over seven million cars, following the discovery of issues with window switches, as reported on the BBC. Recalls can take a number of different forms – they can involve dealers carrying out an on-site repair, an immediate replacement, or a complete withdrawal of a good from sale. Continue reading