Tag Archives: counterfactual

How to know what didn’t happen

One of the key types of projects I work on is the economic impact study, which looks at how government expenditure, regulatory changes, public policy or commercial decisions have changed or will change the welfare of the country. ┬áIn order to carry out such an exercise, you must build a model which estimates economic activity (in terms of money spent and employment) under two scenarios – with and without the policy or commercial decision. Continue reading